Think we may have gotten our wires crossed, GSP--
After Brusilov 1916, Austro-Hungarian combat effectivenes never was quite the same {excluding the Italo-Alpine front}
But after Brusilov 1916,
Tsarist Russia had pretty much lost the war.
What if Aleksandr Kerenski'i (using the Old Russian spelling in this post) had politely informed the Allies in the spring of 1917 that "Declaring an Armistice with the Central Powers -- domestic situation critical -- no longer able to continue in the fight -- Best of luck with Kaiser Wilhelm and all."
(In short, an earlier version of Brest-Litovsk! Without V. I. Lenin.)
This goes back to a point broached in an earlier discussion here. The default "Grand Strategy" of World War One was attrition.
Woody Wilson and his grandiose scheme for a League of Nations and those "14 Points" caught Kaiser Bill & co's official attention.
Let us suppose that, with Russia dropping out about 6 months earlier--Germany would in all likelihood been not quite as interested in the little scheme that was going to be eventually tweeked by England & France into a de-facto surrender.
IMHO, we'd be looking at the following in regard to the remaining major players from 1917 on:
Britain: Suffering from shortages and rapidly running out of men. (there's a reason why there was talk of a Lost Generation in the 1920's)
Belgium: Also running out of men (draft age lowered to 15!!!)
France: Not quite as critically low on personnel, but getting frayed at the edges
Italy: Going bonkers about the fact that it was proving nigh-on impossible to prevail against the less-than-brilliantly led Austro-Hungarian army on the Alpine front there (
Che infame! This is SOOO embarrasing!)
Austria: Sufficient warm bodies on hand (unlike France, and especially unlike Britain & Belgium) and sufficient arms/ammunition (unlike Russia) but starting to run short in OTHER areas (by mid-late 1918 starting to resemble the CSA as far as equipages and such)
Germany: Feeling the pinch from the blockade, but holding up far better on almost every other count, and possessed of some of the best officers of the timeperiod (From Brigadier-General Hans von Seeckt all the way down to 1st Lieutenant Erwin Johannes Rommel).
If Kerenski'i and Russia had bailed early, there's a distinct possibility that a TRUE armistice could have been acheived at some point in 1918 or 1919.
Everyone
but the USA was starting to get really really tired by October 1918 the way things historically turned out... Wouldn't have been TOO much longer under this alternative scenario before they, too flashed on winding things down, but with the Western Front Allies in a less demanding position.
"About zee reparacions, Monsieur.."
"Get bent, Herr Clemenceau. Ve owe you and your army of mutineers -- or the Belgian schoolboy army -- or the English who are now starting to use REALLY TALL girls --
nichts!"
"How about my League-o-Nations???"
"Shut up, Wilson."
"Vait, eine moment bitte -- I, Emperor Karl, like this idea. Think we'll do it in my part, get Pilsudski & the Ukies and these new Baltic states to sign...maybe someday give the Czechs and Croats and Bosnia Commonwealth status...."
Meanwhile, Dolfo Hitler eventually finds work as an editorial cartoonist for a newspaper in Vienna....
