[denton]

Here is what I've gathered from reading the opinion, and from various comments on legal boards:

1. This is a very scholarly, strong opinion. Scalia could probably have written something a little weaker, and gotten a 6-3 or 7-2 decision. But he didn't. He gave is the most favorable opinion he could, and still get 5 votes. For the most part, it does not matter how big the victory was, though all 9 justices seemed to agree on the concept of an individual right. SCOTUS will only reverse or overrule itself with great reluctance. The decision is a legal Rock of Gibraltar.

2. Individuals have the right to have operable handguns, shotguns, and rifles in their homes. No federal law can interfere with this right. Laws requiring firearms to be locked or disassembled are out. The question of whether they can carry them about in public places was not addressed.

3. Machine guns do not have protection under the Second Amendment. Gura conceded this point in his orals, and that seriously ticked off a lot of machine gun owners. It was the right thing to do, though. If he had tried to include MGs, we would not have gotten this decision.

4. The decision is not yet binding on states and cities. The case was brought in DC specifically so that the issue of incorporation would not be on the table (made the victory easier to get). That will quickly follow as that NRA files its announced suits against San Francisco, Chicago, and others.

5. We did not get a statement of the level of scrutiny on laws limiting RKBA. That will also follow in subsequent decisions. The Justices left the door open to further cases.

6. Traditional gun laws, such as background checks, are not touched by this decision.

7. It's a huge win. We got pretty much everything that was on the table in this game. We now have that in our pocket and the wind at our back. Still, there is more left to be done than has been done. This could well be re-named the Law Clerks and Attorneys Full Employment Guarantee Decision.

My guesses/estimates:

We will quickly win incorporation against the states and the laws in Chicago will quickly fall.

The AWB would be unconstitutional under this ruling.

We will get a ruling that sets strict scrutiny as the standard for laws limiting RKBA.

Back-door ploys like banning ammunition will fare no better than mandatory locks did.

We will see 20-30 years of decisions re-drawing the boundaries. These will be largely in our favor.

Machine guns may get some 2A protection. The standard for protected arms is basically "those arms commonly owned by law-abiding people". Why are machine guns not commonly owned by law-abiding people? Because the government has made it nearly impossible. No fair!

Mayor Fenty will be tarred and feathered by his fellow gun-grabbers, and ridden out of town on a rail for ever going forward with this. Well, in their hearts at least. The rest of us can just laugh at him, which is what he deserves.